Make Extreme Demands
Years ago, when Donald Trump was just a celebrity businessman, he was desperate to get on the annual Forbes list of the richest Americans. So he called up the reporter in charge of putting the list together and claimed he was worth $10 billion. The skeptical reporter went through Trump’s various assets and concluded that Trump was really worth just $1 billion. Some years later the reporter discovered that Trump at the time had actually been worth only $100 million. In other words, the reporter discounted Trump’s claims by 90% yet still overestimated them by ten times.
The Republican Party in general and Trump in particular exploit a curious way people think: we discount what other people tell us, especially when their claims exceed our expectations. Thus, if you want your audience to get an accurate estimate of something, you must exaggerate your claims about it. (And if you want them to overestimate something, you must exaggerate your claims beyond all bounds.)
Exaggerated claims yield a couple of advantages. First, they get you noticed. The Forbes reporter wouldn’t have spent much time on Trump, except for the big number Trump bragged about. You can claim almost anything you want as long as it’s plausible or realistic on the surface. The reporter wouldn’t have given a second thought to Trump if he had said Martians gave him a trunk containing $10 billion in cash.
Second, the claim you make sets an anchor point for the audience. The audience doesn’t evaluate your claim from zero, assuming nothing and considering only objective evidence. The audience starts from the marker you set down. If Trump had never contacted him, the Forbes reporter would have looked at the objective evidence and given a much lower estimate of the assets’ value. Instead, the reporter started from Trump’s number and worked down. Trump’s wild claim subtly injected an assumption into the reporter’s mind: Trump is a billionaire. The $10 billion starting point gave the reporter plenty of room to discount and made it easy to accept Trump’s net worth was $1 billion.
If Democrats make some exaggerated claims, they will capture voters’ attention while inserting favorable assumptions into their minds and achieving the lesser goal they’re really aiming at. Here are three examples of extreme demands Democratic leaders might issue.
Demand #1: All Republican officeholders at the federal level should resign.
Justification: Republicans refuse to fulfill their responsibilities, including protecting the public, upholding the law, and checking executive power.
Plausibility: Even Republican voters don’t respect Republican officials, whom they view as weak and slippery.
Discounted assumption: There’s systemic failure in the Republican Party.
Outcome: Convincing voters it’s safer to put Democrats in charge.
Demand #2: Republican voters should apologize to people in their community.
Justification: Giving Trump and the Republicans control of all three branches of government has led to chaos.
Plausibility: Republicans value personal responsibility and accountability.
Discounted assumption: Ordinary Republicans have shown bad judgment.
Outcome: Forcing Republicans to justify themselves.
Demand #3: Only publications making a good-faith effort to convey the truth should be allowed to call themselves “news.”
Justification: Right-wing political propaganda coming from supposed “news” organizations confuses voters.
Plausibility: The government has a responsibility to ensure airways are used in the public interest.
Discounted assumption: People who get their news from right-wing media are misinformed.
Outcome: Turning right-wing media into a political liability.
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