Mind the Gap

Recent polling shows a dangerous deficit that Democrats don’t seem to realize they have—at least, they’re not talking about it.

Voters are regularly asked whether they approve of Donald Trump’s handling of the economy. In the latest survey, 27% of voters said yes, 63% said no. Thus, Trump is underwater by 36 percentage points, a result which encourages Democrats for the midterm elections.

At almost the same time, voters were asked which party they trust more on the economy. 52% said they trust Democrats, 48% said Republicans. Democrats hailed the result—it’s the first time they’ve led on this question since 2010. But notice that Republicans are only underwater by 4 percentage points! 4 rather than 36 points.

You’ve probably anticipated my point. The Republican Party nominated Trump three times for president and have supported him completely. Trump’s economic policies are the Republican economic policies. There are no others. Yet the Republican Party has escaped most of the blame for a bad economy that we all experience personally.

This big discrepancy appears even stranger if you take a longer perspective. Go back however far you want—25 years, 50 years, 75 years, 100 years. Whatever measure of time you choose, Democrats outperform Republicans by wide margins in economic growth and job creation. Nevertheless, for the last 50 years, voters instinctively believe Republicans are better at managing the economy, a belief called into doubt only during an economic crisis and returned to, perversely, as soon as Democrats have started the country back on the road to recovery.

How can this be so? Because Republicans have bragged about being economic experts for five decades, and Democrats haven’t seriously contested the point. If you listen to Democrats, the blame for today’s economy lies almost entirely with Trump. He’s the one they call out over and over again. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that Trump is upside down on the economy while the Republican Party remains at near parity with Democrats.

You can see what’s going to happen. Voters will punish Trump in 2026 and probably 2028 by voting Democrat. But after that, Republicans will regain their traditional advantage on the economy in voters’ minds and retake power. How do I know? Already three times since 2000 voters replaced a Democratic president with a fabulously successful economy with a Republican president with a disastrous economy. It’ll happen again unless Democrats do something to break the cycle.